Superdelegates give Hillary the lead on Super Tuesday.

As the delegate count from SDTT (Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday) continues to settle, the democrats are realizing that they could face a particularly touchy subject come the Democratic National Convention. Ever since Al Gore took the popular vote but lost due to a technicality back in 2000, the Democratic Party has been acutely aware of how painful it is to be told that, when put to the test, each vote actually doesn’t matter.

What the party could face on August 28 in Denver, Colorado is an internal version of that struggle that could potentially disillusion massive numbers of voters. Right now, Barack is only down by .5% (7,347,971 v 7,294,851) according to the vote count, however he’s down 5% (1045 v 960) according to the delegate count. This goes back to the superdelegates. Although the states split their democratic delegates proportionate to the voters demands, the superdelegates can do what they see fit. Since Hillary has been wooing them for quite some time, they’ve found it appropriate to support her.

Many consider unfair and ridiculous that the democratic party even has superdelegates, but it's certainly not without rationale. The Republican primaries often send all of a states’ delegates to the candidate who can achieve a simple majority. This often creates a large enough disparity to anoint a clear winner of the party nomination, even if the momentum that high delegate counts can create isn’t always fair.

The democrats, to avoid this issue, reflect voter patterns when they distribute delegates, but they also don’t want a completely split party when the convention arrives. Part of the primaries is to find the best candidate, the other part is to galvanize support around them. The superdelegates are supposed to heighten that momentum, and in the end shouldn’t end up making that much a difference. If, however, the popular vote says that Obama should be their candidate, but the superdelegates swing the nomination over to Hillary solely based on their desires, then I could see some serious tension arising.

To sum it up: I’ve said before that if it comes to a 50/50 split on the nomination, I’d rather have people well connected to politics, such as the superdelegates, strike the final blow on the nomination. Personally, I wouldn’t have a problem if the superdelegates are the one to tip the balance, better them than a bunch of people who are making up their minds a day or two before the election based on a handful of commercials. The problem is that we would make people apathetic at the party level. It’s one thing to be apathetic about politics and have that belief confirmed at the national level. It’s wholly another to be excited enough about politics to vote in the primaries, only to have your own party deny the wishes of their constituents and nominate who they want.

Here's my favorite part about these delegate counts, however. "The AP tracks the delegate races by projecting the number of national convention delegates won by candidates in each presidential primary or caucus, based on state and national party rules, and by interviewing unpledged delegates to obtain their preferences." That means that Hillary's 85 delegate lead is mainly imagined. Their not-so-super delegate count is almost equal. To avoid pandemonium, the superdelegates are likely to simply vote for the candidate in the lead at the convention. The current lead is almost entirely speculation.

McCain Wins Delegates Florida, Hillary Wins Scorn.

John McCain has cinched Florida, and thereby batted away the belief that he couldn't capture the hardcore republicans that are common in the state. Guiliani had put all of his chips in this strategic basket, but the bottom of that basket fell through when the republican party found itself in need of someone who could not only lead the party in an acceptable direction, but also had a solid chance at beating the likely opposing candidate, a feat that McCain seems capable of but Guiliani stands a strong chance of failing. Mitt Romney pulled in a close second to McCain, but second may as well be last in Florida since the winner gets all 57 delegates, the most delegates awarded to a republican by any of the contests so far.

Hillary Clinton was also the clear winner in Tuesdays round of voting, however it means much less to her since Barack Obama is still coming off of a strategically crucial win in South Carolina, and since Florida has no delegates to give away. The DNC decision was made when Florida tried to move up their primary to January 29th, a week before the earliest day allowed by the rules: February 5th. Michigan tried the same tactic and was awarded the same punishment, impatience resulting in irrelevance.

The date and the 4 states that skirt the rule (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and S. Carolina) are arbitrary, however a limit must be placed somewhere or else the primaries will simply move farther and farther back in an effort for states to increase their importance in providing pivotal momentum for candidates. Although the candidates signed an agreement last fall promising not to campaign in the states and to stand by the DNC's move to relieve the states of their delegates, Hillary is now challenging the decision, raising concern of her motives.

To sum it up: McCain has the back of the republican party now, and it's likely to carry him through Tsunami Tuesday. It's a good thing for his party, too, since RealClearPolitics has shown him to be the only republican candidate who could handle his own in the ring with either Barack or Hillary. Hillary, on the other hand, needs to watch herself. She's leading the pack as far as delegates go, but she's also riding a fine line with her political game-playing and ranting husband. Barack is also riding high off the fumes of a multi-Kennedy endorsement and is going to be gunning for as many delegates as possible in the chance that it's going to come down to John Edwards trading his delegates like baseball cards in return for political favors.

Edwards imagines power in his role as Kingmaker

Article after article has tapped a sword on Edwards' shoulders and dubbed him kingmaker, apparently because there is little hope on deciding who will actually be the king. Polls still show Hillary to be well ahead of Obama, but Super Tuesday is a bit of a black box out of which anything could emerge. Hillary shows prominence in the major states of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and California, however the Democratic primaries delegate delegates in a fair and orderly manner, each candidate receiving a number proportional to their winning. This means that the frontrunners will both be gunning for the 2025 delegates necessary to be crowned presidential candidate.

Where does John come in? Well, there are 4,049 delegates to pass around, and Edwards is expected to collect about 10 to 15% of them, or 400-600. This leaves approximately 3,500, which means that one of the two leaders needs to stomp the other by nearly 20% in order to win. The gap between Hillary and Obama is only 10% or so by most polls, which puts John in quite an interesting situation.

Sure, he could step back from the dogfight and do whatever it is candidates do with any unused money they raised. However, a candidate gets to spend their earned delegates how they want once they leave the ring, so why not stick it out and exert the power that he doesn't have a chance at earning as president? Moreover, if he gets to choose, it's almost as good as winning since he's basically securing a spot as vice-president, and this time to someone who could actually win.

To sum it up: The media is somewhat nobly trying to avoid being wrong after Super Tuesday and is refraining from giving a definite answer as to who will walk away with the blessing of the left. It's mainly the fault of the registered voters who have refused to fall in line and stick behind an obviously not-worst choice. Therefore, they are doing the next best thing to calling the race: calling who will call the race. John's making a brilliant move here, but the media is making the equivalent move in their own little game.

Where do the candidates stand?

Not on actual positions, of course, but rather, where do they stand in rankings? How many delegates have the fierce competitors managed to win in sidewalk games of political marbles? We’ve heard about McCain surging ahead and Obama going neck and neck with Hillary, so where’s the proof in this pudding? Well, here we go:

Romney: 59
Huckabee: 40
McCain: 36
Total Of 1,191 Delegates Needed To Win

Clinton: 236
Obama: 136
Edwards: 50
Total Of 2,025 Delegates Needed To Win

If you think these numbers don’t reflect the pundit predictions and even if they did it’s way too early, then you would be right. I’ll grant that prior primaries have coughed up a clear front-runner long before Super Tuesday, but it’s not the case in this election, so just take a moment to savor the squirming journalists who have to come to grips with uncertainty.