Clinton and the Caucus

Barack Obama seems to have a knack for caucuses. His first win was in the Iowa caucuses, and he’s only seen success in them since then. On SDTT (Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday), he went six for six on the caucuses held that day, and today’s results echo that momentum. Hillary has been known to downplay the caucus system, saying they reflect the activists, not the general public.

Caucuses are public gatherings where people wear their political affiliation on their sleeve. They’re also often a long process, held during the day, which is why Hillary claims they inaccurately reflect the desires of the democratic populous. The demographic that is claimed to be behind her, blue-collar workers, are supposedly too busy at work to stop by and announce their vote. What Hillary is neglecting to mention is that the caucuses often go on all day and that a voter doesn’t need to stick around the whole time. What she also leaves out is that another one of her supposedly supportive demographics are older voters, particularly women, who one would think would have plenty of time to hang around a caucus and show their support.

Even if Hillary was correct in chalking up caucuses to just the activists, isn’t that a big part of what the primaries are about? It seems like everyone is talking about how McCain can’t rally the conservative base and how that’s going to cause issues in November. Enough can’t be said about how important the 20-30% of reported ‘hardcores’ who are showing their distaste for McCain by either voting for Huckabee or not voting at all. So wouldn’t it seem that the primaries is mainly about getting the activists excited and motivated. Isn’t the desire to find a frontrunner early on simply to allow time for the non-activists and non-hardcores to coalesce around the nominee before he or she has to face the onslaught they are about to receive from the opposing party?

To sum it up: Just because public nature of the caucus system tends to bring out the activists doesn’t invalidate them, nor does it mean we’re not getting a proper pulse of the state. They may be a bit more confusing and takes more time than simple primaries, but there are only 17 caucuses out of the 53 races (including DC and the territories), and after next Tuesday, the rest are primaries. Hillary, if anything, should be concerned as to why she’s not able to bring out activists and wonder just who is going to fight for her if she does manage to get the nomination. At least Barack has droves of passionate people ready to get out there and do what it takes to win votes.

If the Economy Got a Vote

Right now the concern on everyone’s opinion poll receipt is the economy, and the choices being offered up in candidates is troubling for two out of three. Hillary’s recently dismissed campaign manager, Patty Doyle, has graced quite a few headlines, but the focus has been on how this signals a loss of steam in Hillary’s engine. That may be the case, but the tipping point that helped lead to the parting of ways was simply the medium-sized log that broke the camels back.

SDTT (Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday) may not have gone the way Hillary wanted it to, and a repeat of losses in the next round probably only licked the back of the stamp for the already written letter, however there was trouble a-brewing in the Clinton house before then. It was exposed that Hillary lent her own campaign a generous $5,000,000 sometime in January (explaining her hesitancy to release her donation numbers until the last minute), but she must have forgotten to mention that to Patty. Patty, however, one-upped the oops by forgetting to mention to Hillary that the Clinton ’08 campaign was practically broke coming into the Feb 5 vote-stravaganza.

Massive fiscal irresponsibility this early on in one’s presidency (that is to say, before it has even began) can’t be a good sign. McCain, however, doesn’t even pretend to know what he’s doing in the monetary department. Well, he is now, but for a long time claimed he needed to brush up on the subject, although never quite following up on that promise.

To sum it up: Barack seems to be winning this one by default. Even his healthcare proposal understands that the economy is ready for either of the extremes proposed by his competitors; government healthcare for all or give it to the free market. If the vote this year really does come down to concerns about the economy, Obama’s feel-good tactics and adorably moderate proposals may be just what the doctor ordered.

McCain Wins Delegates Florida, Hillary Wins Scorn.

John McCain has cinched Florida, and thereby batted away the belief that he couldn't capture the hardcore republicans that are common in the state. Guiliani had put all of his chips in this strategic basket, but the bottom of that basket fell through when the republican party found itself in need of someone who could not only lead the party in an acceptable direction, but also had a solid chance at beating the likely opposing candidate, a feat that McCain seems capable of but Guiliani stands a strong chance of failing. Mitt Romney pulled in a close second to McCain, but second may as well be last in Florida since the winner gets all 57 delegates, the most delegates awarded to a republican by any of the contests so far.

Hillary Clinton was also the clear winner in Tuesdays round of voting, however it means much less to her since Barack Obama is still coming off of a strategically crucial win in South Carolina, and since Florida has no delegates to give away. The DNC decision was made when Florida tried to move up their primary to January 29th, a week before the earliest day allowed by the rules: February 5th. Michigan tried the same tactic and was awarded the same punishment, impatience resulting in irrelevance.

The date and the 4 states that skirt the rule (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and S. Carolina) are arbitrary, however a limit must be placed somewhere or else the primaries will simply move farther and farther back in an effort for states to increase their importance in providing pivotal momentum for candidates. Although the candidates signed an agreement last fall promising not to campaign in the states and to stand by the DNC's move to relieve the states of their delegates, Hillary is now challenging the decision, raising concern of her motives.

To sum it up: McCain has the back of the republican party now, and it's likely to carry him through Tsunami Tuesday. It's a good thing for his party, too, since RealClearPolitics has shown him to be the only republican candidate who could handle his own in the ring with either Barack or Hillary. Hillary, on the other hand, needs to watch herself. She's leading the pack as far as delegates go, but she's also riding a fine line with her political game-playing and ranting husband. Barack is also riding high off the fumes of a multi-Kennedy endorsement and is going to be gunning for as many delegates as possible in the chance that it's going to come down to John Edwards trading his delegates like baseball cards in return for political favors.

The question of Electability

Electability is always a strong consideration in the primaries. The French call the action 'vote utile,’ tactical voting or the useful vote. Don’t vote for the ideal candidate, vote for the candidate who can win. The notion is a little degrading, but wise nonetheless. If you compromise nothing and therefore gain nothing and your measly little protest counted for nothing, well, you may want to re-think your strategy.

To flesh out the strategy in a bit more detail, we aren’t just offering up the person who we think could win. Beyond that, we’re offering up the person who we think could win against the person that we believe the other side will nominate, i.e., the person they chose because they think that nominee could win against our chosen candidate. This presents difficulties since each possible match-up presents a different set of obstacles for either side.

The best defense, of course, would be a candidate that could beat anyone from the other side, but that’s a bit of wishful thinking. Next to that, we just need to deal with what information we have, and make educated guesses. I’m going to provide a few bullet points of information that will hopefully help clarify not who represents you the best, but who you think will have the best chance at representing you at all.

First, the polls. It’s been pointed out in an earlier post that both Hillary and Obama would lose to McCain if tomorrow were November 4th, even though Hillary is stomping Obama in the national democratic polls. However, Hillary creams Romney, the other likely republican choice, as does Barack. Beyond all of this, John Edwards is the only democrat who could beat McCain, but he sits last on the left-hand list.

Ok, enough of polls, let’s discuss the ought-to-be-irrelevant factors that no doubt will play a role here. There’s Obama’s race, McCain’s age, Clinton’s gender, and Romney’s religion. Obama also has an age issue, or rather a lack-of-age issue, which could come back to bite him, but many of the same people who would be considering the weight of the problem also considered it when Kennedy was running, so it could be overcome. In my opinion, not a single one of these should really be relevant when choosing your candidate. The religion issue comes closest to affecting how they will lead as president, but it’s doubtful that we’ll become ‘one nation, under Joseph Smith.'

Finally, there are the issues that matter, that is, the things these candidates have actually done in the past that could stifle their bid for presidency. Romney, besides being the farthest from the center, was by no means an indisputably excellent governor of Massachusetts, but his business acumen as a former CEO and his gift to America (or just Utah?) of saving the 2002 Winter Olympics could win a few hearts and a couple minds. McCain is undeniably a war hawk, but at least he knows what it’s all about and isn’t likely to make whimsical decisions based on bad evidence. He has been known for years as not necessarily a moderate, but someone who isn’t so ideological as to avoid crossing the isle, however he has been drifting farther to the right bank in previous years.

Obama, as everyone has pointed out at some point or another, is said to lack experience, but that claim is a specious one and unlikely to be a truly prohibitive factor due to his public service experience and golden oratory abilities. He’s also the only candidate on stage who didn’t vote for the war, and that could win serious points, unless, that is, you’re one of the Americans who do not believe that we should pull out so soon. Clinton, like McCain, has a strong history of policy, and an undeniable amount of influence in Washington, but she voted for the war and she brings a lot of baggage with her role in the Medicare makeover of 1993. She also highlights the issue of an autocracy since the history books would read Bush, Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush, Clinton, (Clinton?). This issue borders on the irrelevant, but it’s certainly not a trend we should be condoning.

To sum it up: ‘Le vote utile’ in this election is not nearly as clear as it has been in previous ones, so I’m encouraging everyone on both sides to vote with their heart. We don’t get a lot of chances with so many honestly decent candidates asking for our support. Whether you personally like them or not, the four contenders left standing all bring something to the table and they’ll all put up a helluva fight. For that reason, screw the electability argument, vote for who you love.

The Magic of Polls

The most recent polls still show Hillary beating Barack pretty handily if we all had to vote for a democratic candidate today. They also show McCain stomping Huckabee and the rest of the gang if we had to pick a favorite republican out of the barrel. Therefore, one would think that if you pit McCain against Hillary and then have him square up against Barack, then Hillary would have a better chance than Barack, right? Moreover, they way the republicans have been acting, either of the lefties would smack ole' McCain around like a disobedient dog, would she not?

Wrong, on both points. Polls show that McCain would win either competition. Here's the magic part, though: Barack would stand a better chance against McCain than Hillary would. Tack onto that the 'fact' that Barack and Hillary would get the same percent of voters according to the RealClearPolitics numbers: 44.5%.

How can this happen, you ask? Let's put it in terms of elementary level math. Hillary is taller than Barack. John is taller than Hillary. If John were standing in the middle of Hillary and Barack, who would have a smaller difference in height, Hillary or Barack?

Answer: Barack, because Hillary would stand about the same height when next to John, but Barack would snatch John's step stool of independent voters. In this way, Barack gets taller and John gets shorter and America gets to keep a male as president.

Two wrongs make a right-wing attack ad

John McCain. Tireless, bedraggled, poor ‘ole McCain. He was supposed to be the one taking the high road. He knew all too well the disgusting tone that attack ads bring to the political cacophony from his experience in 2000 when then aspiring evil-political-mastermind Karl Rove posed a hypothetical question that left South Carolinians wanting to lynch the venerable senator. He was supposed to be above that, staring stoically into the wind from the conductor’s seat in the Straight Talk Express. It may be true that his excrement, in fact, does not smell like roses, however we must give some credit to the undoubtedly most moderate candidate on the republican primary ballot. He is a man of (seeming) integrity and (partial) honor, and he, of all people, would not stoop to using attack ads, at least certainly not in the primaries.

We were mistaken, it seems, since it has come out that his campaign released it’s very own attack ad LINK, replete with out of context, sloppily researched statistics about his main opponent, Mitt Romney. Mitt’s campaign has had no shortage of turds LINK flung from it’s monkey hand, but our public is over political attack ads, aren’t they? They’re tired of hearing about the bad things that other candidates may or may not have done in the past, they want to know what this candidate is going to do now, right?

Leaving that painfully moot rhetorical question aside, I love the details of this showing of poor taste. The letter was nowhere near as harsh as some of Mitt’s attacks LINK on McCain. McCain, however, feeling a little guilty (he’s obviously not a politician at heart), tried to justify and excuse the malicious mass mailing.

"The McCain campaign says that the contrast piece is accurate and fair in light of Romney's use of negative ads against their candidate throughout the primary season. 'We've been attacked enough times by Mitt Romney to justify getting out front to set the record straight,' said McCain spokesman" [source]

Earlier that week, McCain had formed a league of superheroes known as the Truth Squad, whose mission is to defend the honorable moniker of John McCain. Much like our current president, Senator McCain apparently believes that the defense against possible attacks includes preemptive strikes on those who may possibly be attacking.

As an aside, I don't want to leave the delightful dems out of this. Barack and and Hillary have been playing badminton with allegedly racist comments for the past few days. Attack ads are as common to Hillary as lead in Chinese toys but many were a surprised and quite frankly a little disappointed in our beloved Barack when his campaign went on the offensively defense regarding the twisted statement. He, like McCain, had the dignity to feel undignified and openly apologized for the nasty remarks he had been trading with Mrs. Hillary.

You have to wonder if these two are just diving into the ongoing barroom brawl only to jump back out with a little dirt on them and excusing ourselves to our humiliated girlfriend. In one fell swoop they were able to show their authority and conviction, be absolved of the abomination, and make those still throwing punches look even worse.

To sum it up: Much like every other presidential race in recent history, this one will have no shortage of attack ads. One difference this time, however, is the use of the meta-attack. Indirectly attacking the opponent by attacking one's own use of attack ads. If we can't vote for someone who refuses to use the demeaning tactic, I guess we should at least vote for the one who uses them with remorse.