Friday, January 18, 2008

The Magic of Polls

The most recent polls still show Hillary beating Barack pretty handily if we all had to vote for a democratic candidate today. They also show McCain stomping Huckabee and the rest of the gang if we had to pick a favorite republican out of the barrel. Therefore, one would think that if you pit McCain against Hillary and then have him square up against Barack, then Hillary would have a better chance than Barack, right? Moreover, they way the republicans have been acting, either of the lefties would smack ole' McCain around like a disobedient dog, would she not?

Wrong, on both points. Polls show that McCain would win either competition. Here's the magic part, though: Barack would stand a better chance against McCain than Hillary would. Tack onto that the 'fact' that Barack and Hillary would get the same percent of voters according to the RealClearPolitics numbers: 44.5%.

How can this happen, you ask? Let's put it in terms of elementary level math. Hillary is taller than Barack. John is taller than Hillary. If John were standing in the middle of Hillary and Barack, who would have a smaller difference in height, Hillary or Barack?

Answer: Barack, because Hillary would stand about the same height when next to John, but Barack would snatch John's step stool of independent voters. In this way, Barack gets taller and John gets shorter and America gets to keep a male as president.

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